A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
