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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often serves as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However the latest field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still