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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd